ECONOMIC FORECAST
www.mrca.org  —  Midwest Roofer
8
T
he construction industry can look forward to a 
gradually improving, if challenging, operating 
environment in 2026. “The US economy is 
holding up admirably well despite a major trade shock 
caused by tariffs,” said Bernard Yaros Jr., Lead U.S. 
Economist at Oxford Economics (oxfordeconomics.
com). “We look for an acceleration in growth in 
2026 as stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill 
gets underway.”
Oxford Economics expects real GDP to grow by 
2% in 2026, up a bit from the 1.7% expected when 
2025 numbers are finally tallied. Both years, among 
the most sluggish growth environments of the past 
decade, are underperforming the 2.8% increase 
of 2024. 
(Gross Domestic Product, the total value of the 
nation’s goods and services, is the most commonly 
utilized measure of economic growth. “Real” GDP 
subtracts the effects of inflation).
Higher profits
The nation’s economic growth depends largely on 
the launch of new business initiatives. Unfortunately, 
companies are holding back for a number of 
reasons. Interest rates, while declining, are still at 
the highest levels since 2022. Costs for materials 
and supplies are increasing. There is uncertainty 
about the nation’s future trade policy. Lower and 
middle income consumers, nervous about inflation, 
are tapped out and closing their wallets. Against 
such headwinds, a host of otherwise attractive 
projects can look less promising.
One might also expect business profitability to suffer. 
By: Phillip M. Perry
FORECAST 2026
RISING COSTS, SLUGGISH CONSUMERS
A modest uptick in economic growth, beneficial legislation from Washington 
and lower interest rates will help the construction industry boost profitability 
in 2026. The increasing costs of doing business, though, combined with 
uncertainty and consumer malaise will reduce the number of business initiatives 
that make it off the drawing board. Companies need to double down on smart 
tactics to boost productivity in the face of a decelerating population.

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