b"THE OFFICIAL NFBA MAGAZINEBEYOND HEADLINES: WHAT TO DO WITH THE LATEST ECONOMIC NEWSBetween the war, inflation, the stock market, etc., economic news headlines have been overwhelming lately. Lets break down recent movements and how they should inform yourBUSINESS ECONOMICSbusiness decisions.The Stock MarketT hrough April, the S&P 500 declined 13.3%, erasing roughly a years worth of gains. On a monthly basis, the 1/12 rate-of-change was negative for the first time in two years. Generally speaking, defensive and inflation-oriented investments are outperforming other sectors, such as technology. While near-term volatility is likely, peer cases suggest gains are probable one year out.Energy PricesRussias invasion of Ukraine is impacting the normal supply-demandfundamentalsofglobalenergy markets,resultinginelevatedprices.TheUShasa record-low 2.65% in early January 2021 and were banned oil imports from Russia, and the Europeangenerally below 3% throughout 2021. Since the start of Union, which is more dependent on Russian sources,this year, rates have jumped up, surpassing 5% during is considering but has not yet implemented a ban.April. The Federal Reserve Board's recent increases The US is experiencing higher oil prices, but due totothefederalfundsrate,aswellasanticipated domestic production the increases are not as drasticfutureincreases,signalthatriseinmortgage as in Europe. US Crude Oil Prices remained betweenrates is likely to persist. The financial status of US roughly $95 and $115 per barrel in April and earlyconsumers suggests they are able to handle higher May.Moredrastically,theMarch-to-Aprilriseofrates.However,ifratescontinuetoclimbrapidly, 34.7% in US Natural Gas Prices is nearly double theit will pose a downside risk to the housing market.previous record rise for this time period. Natural gasDespiterisingmortgagerates,housingvacancy may be currently subject to greater pricing pressurerates remain near record lows while housing costs due to exports of LNG to Europe. Plan for elevatedarestillrising,suggestinghomeownerswilllikely energy and transport costs until the supply limitationscontinuetopurchasehomes.Themajorityof are resolvedlook to improve efficiencies to helpevidence points to growth in housing construction, mitigate these costs. If you have exposure to the O&Galthoughgrowthwillslowintoearlynextyear. market, be prepared for rising domestic activity butThose in the construction market should prepare to keepinmindthatproductionisstillconstrainedincrease capacity, keeping in mind regional trends.byinvestors'willingnesstofinanceexpansion.Mortgage Rates InflationMortgageratesremainrelativelylowcomparedtoApril was a significant month for inflation. Producer prior decades but are rising rapidly. Rates were atinflation reached a 47-year high of 15.7%. Consumer 20 / FRAME BUILDER - AUG2022"