b'Economic Update CSIA 15C learing skies with a chance of showers. The construction industry and manufacturers can look forward to a gradually improving operatingenvironmentin2025,thanks tolowerinterestrates,moderatinginflation,and steady if unspectacular growth in the nations overall economic activity. WelookforrealGDPgrowthof1.9%in2025, saidBernardYarosJr.,LeadU.S.Economistat By Phillip M. Perry OxfordEconomics(oxfordeconomics.com).(Gross DomesticProduct,thetotalvalueofthenations goods and services, is the most commonly utilized measure of economic growth. Real GDP subtracts the effects of inflation).The good news is that the 1.9% boost is not far off what economists peg as the nations natural growth rateonethatsupportsbusinessactivityand maintains full employment. And reduced volatility in the GDP growth pattern in recent years suggests the nation is on a glide path to a so-called soft landing, avoidingarecessionafteralengthyinflationary binge (see adjacent chart).Despite its positive nature, the GDP figure for 2025 isslightlylowerthanthe2.6%anticipatedwhen 2024numbersarefinallytallied.Thatsbecause the nation is in a so-called late-stage expansion,(PCED) which strips out volatile food and energy characterizedbyatendencytoslowdownwhileprices). CENTRAL STATES INSULATION ASSOCIATIONmaintaining sufficient force to invigorate commercial operations.Relief from the costs of interest and inflation will help fatten the bottom lines of businesses everywhere. Fair winds We anticipate corporate profits will increase 7.1% in 2024 and 5.8% in 2025, up from their 1.5% gain in In 2025, construction operations and manufacturers2023, said Yaros.can look forward to a decline in both interest rates and inflationtwo bugbears that have drained profits inReportsfromthefieldconfirmtheeconomists recent times. We anticipate a federal funds interestoptimistic view. Our members are looking forward to rate of 2.75% by the end of 2025, down from a recenta growth year in 2025, largely from expectations that 4.75%,saidYaros.Andwelookforinflationtointerest rates will decline, said Tom Palisin, Executive average 2.2% in the final quarter of 2025, which willDirector of The Manufacturers Association, a York, be within spitting distance of the Feds 2% target.Pa.,-basedconsortiumwithnearly500member Thats an improvement from the 2.5% inflation levelcompanies(mascpa.org).Thechangeinfortunes toward the end of 2024. (These figures represent thecant come soon enough, he added. High interest FederalReservespreferredmeasureofinflation:rates have been putting constraints on many of our the core personal consumption expenditure deflatormemberswhohavebeentryingtomaintaintheir continued on pg.16csiaonline.org'