b"YOUR TOOLKIT FOR BUILDING EXCELLENCEbottomline.MoodysAnalyticsexpectsaSoaretheFederalReserveseffortspayingoff? declineof4.5%incorporateprofitsfor2023Theres some good news here, as well as a sunny andonlyamodestrecoveryof0.3%in2024.forecast.MoodysAnalyticsexpectsyear-over-The construction sector will feel similar downwardyearconsumerpriceinflationtoaverage3.2% pressure.Amajorissueforconstructioniswhen2023numbersarefinallytallied,down thatinflationremainsproblematicandinterestfromover6%ayearearlier.Moreover,the ratesarelikelytostayhigherforlonger,saidnumber should continue to drop until it reaches AnirbanBasu,Chairman&CEOofSagetheFedstargetrateof2%latein2024.(These PolicyGroup(sagepolicy.com).Thatimpactsfigures represent the core personal consumption projectfinancing.Henotesthattheeconomyexpendituredeflator(PCED),whichstrips isstillexperiencinginflationpressuresfromoutfoodandenergypricesandistheFederal energyprices,wages,andconsumerspending.Reservespreferredmeasureofinflation).Basu sees something of a mixed bag for the industry.Indeed,MoodysAnalyticsbelievestheFedwill Heretofore, construction companies in all sectorsstart to lower interest rates around June of 2024, have been busy. But I think what you'll see goingalthough more slowly than previously anticipated forward is that some contractors will get even busierbecause of persistent inflation and ongoing labor while others will see their revenues begin to fade.markettightness.Cutsofabout25basispoints Thefuturewillbebrightforthosecontractorsper quarter are expected over the next few years aligned with mega projects in infrastructure anduntiltheFederalFundsRatereaches2.75%by computer chip manufacturing. The picture is lessthefourthquarterof2026and2.5%in2027.bright for other contractors aligned to markets suchWillthatde-escalationofinterestratesbe as offices, hotels and shopping malls. We knowenoughtokeepthenatinfromtippingintoa we have many millions of square feet of distressedrecession?MoodysAnalyticsbelievesthatthe office inventory in this country that frustrates newnation will avoid a recession in 2024, attributing construction, said Basu. Many owners of theseitsforecastofasoftlandingtoresiliencein office buildings are taking enormous losses on thelabormarketsandconsumerconfidence.value of their properties and are having to refinanceBasu,however,isamongtheeconomiststaking their debts at a time when interest rates are higha contrary view. I believe the US economy will andbankersarereluctanttoexposethemselvesbeinrecessionbyatsomepointin2024,he tothevagariesofcommercialrealestate. said.Anumberoffactors,includingavery Battling inflation strongconsumerandemployerswillingtohire Reportsfromthefieldconfirmtheeconomistsmorepeopleandraisewages,haveallowedthe readings.OurmembersareexperiencingaUSeconomytoretainmomentum.Butmajor businessslowdown,duelargelytotheeffectstructuralissuessuggesttheeconomywill ofincreasinginterestrates,saidTomPalisin,weaken,includingthosehigherinterestrates.ExecutiveDirectorofTheManufacturers'Feeling goodAssociation, a York, Pa.,-based regional employers'Thepublicmoodisastrongdriverofthe groupwithmorethan370membercompanieseconomy. And here the news is good. Consumer (mascpa.org).Whilebusinessesunderstandtheconfidence has been trending higher, and I think needforhigherinterestrates,theyneverthelessprospects are good for it to improve next year, hope for early relief. If inflation does not continuesaidScottHoyt,SeniorDirectorofConsumer todrop,interestrateswillhavetobeincreasedEconomicsforMoodysAnalytics(economy.further, which will be a big problem, said Palisin.com). Things should normalize as the economyFRAME BUILDER - NOV2023 / 31"