economic outlook
44
MICA MESSENGER
will prevent further progress on interest 
rate,” said Basu.
Oxford Economics still expects the 
nation to avoid a recession, and the 
expected 2% GDP growth is right 
around the level economists peg as the 
nation’s “natural growth rate”—one that 
supports business activity, maintains 
full employment, and avoids triggering 
inflation. 
Perhaps of even greater importance, 
though, is a little heralded threat to 
productivity. “One thing that sort of 
permeates the whole economic picture 
right now is the nation’s low population 
growth rate,” said Conerly. “Immigration 
is down, due to Trump administration 
policy. The next generation entering 
their working years is about the same 
size as the retiring boomers, so there 
will be no net growth in the labor force.”
2015: 2.9%
2016: 1.8%
2017: 2.5%
2018: 3.0%
2019: 2.5%
2020: -2.2% 
2021: 6.6%
2022: 2.5%
2023: 2.9% 
2024: 2.8%
* 2025: 1.7%
* 2026: 2.0%
Source: World 
Bank; * = 
projections 
by Oxford 
Economics.
FORECAST 2026
POISED 
FOR A 
MODEST 
REBOUND
Responding to this trend, companies in 
the construction industry will look for 
ways to maximize their return on labor 
by increasing output per worker, noted 
Conerly. “The focus of businesses in 
2026 will be increasing productivity—
not by whipping people harder, but 
by providing them with better tools, 
better training, and better first-level 
managers.”
U.S. Gross Domestic Product 
(GDP) (Annual % Change)
FORECAST 2026

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