economic outlook
40
MICA MESSENGER
refunds should invigorate consumer 
spending. Both activities are important 
drivers of the nation’s economy.
This stimulus from Washington is 
arriving at the same time companies 
are getting a more solid footing on the 
nation’s shifting trade policy. “There 
has been a bit of a shock to the system 
in and around tariffs over the past 
year, and it is taking some time for 
many operators to understand their 
impact,” noted Andrew Petryk, Head of 
Industrials at Brown, Gibbons Lang & 
Company, an investment banker (bglco.
com). 
Specifically, companies have responded 
to China tariffs by sourcing imports 
           Lead times have diminished as companies 
have found alternative or additional suppliers,” said 
Petryk. “Those that relied on one or two vendors 
now have three, four or five.”
from other countries—a move which has 
also lent succor to the nation’s recent 
supply chain ills. “Lead times have 
diminished as companies have found 
alternative or additional suppliers,” said 
Petryk. “Those that relied on one or two 
vendors now have three, four or five.”
Businesses should also benefit from a 
decline in the cost of money over the 
coming months, as the Federal Reserve 
shifts its focus from fighting inflation to 
bolstering employment. “We look for 
inflation to peak at just above 3% when 
2025 numbers are finalized, and for 
the Fed to cut interest rates into 2026 
until the federal funds rate falls to about 
3%,” said Yaros. That rate, while much 
higher than the rates of early 2022, is 

View this content as a flipbook by clicking here.