b'Economic Outlook Sheet Metal & Roofing Contractors of the Miami Valley Advisor / Volume 3/ November 2022Published Monthly by ITR Economics Industry AnalysisRETAIL SALES WHOLESALE TRADEAnnual US Total Retail Sales came in 11.7%US Total Wholesale Trade came in at $8.1 trillion above the year-ago level in September in the 12 months through September, 20.2% above the same period one year agoConsumer credit delinquencies are low, aDeclining prices of commodities such as testament to stable consumer financials steel will put downward pressure on dollar-Disinflation in Consumer Prices will help easedenominated Wholesale Tradesome of the pricing pressures on consumers Cooling in the macroeconomy will also contribute to slowing growth in Wholesale TradeAUTO PRODUCTION MANUFACTURINGAnnual North America Light Vehicle ProductionUS Total Manufacturing Production in the 12 tentatively transitioned to accelerating growth inmonths through October was 4.0% above the September, coming in 3.0% above the year-agosame period one year agolevelAccelerating growth will persist into the middleAnnual Production is projected to expand during of 2023; slowing growth will take hold for the2023second half of that yearHowever, a sustained inversion in the 10-year to Delivery times for semiconductor chips are3-month Treasury yield curve could pose a risk shrinking, boding well for Production to Production in the longer termROTARY RIG CAPITAL GOODS NEW ORDERSThe US Rotary Rig Count was at 768 units inAnnual US Nondefense Capital Goods New October Orders (excluding aircraft) came in 10.2% above the year-ago level in SeptemberWhile rising, the Rig Count remains well below the 2018 peak New Orders are poised to reach further record highs throughout 2023 but will do so at a slowing US Drilled But Uncompleted Well Inventory is atpace of riseits lowest in the 13-year data history; elevated oil prices suggest a higher likelihood of completionRising interest rates may deter capex spending, for some of these wells a potential risk to New Orders riseTOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTIONAnnual US Total Nonresidential ConstructionUS Total Residential Construction, which is came in 2.8% above the year-ago level indollar-denominated, is rising at a slowing paceSeptemberHigh mortgage rates and elevated home prices Expect growth in Construction in the comingare contributing to US Single-Unit Housing Starts quarters as supply chain challenges easemeasured in units rather than dollarsfalling below year-ago levelsUS Construction Materials and ComponentsUS Multi-Unit Housing Starts are faring better, as Producer Prices have retreated very mildly invacancies are low and affordability constraints recent months from Augusts record high are keeping would-be homebuyers in the rental marketITReconomics.com 2022 All Rights Reserved 318 www.mrca.orgMidwest Roofer'