b'Economic OutlookSheet Metal & Roofing Contractors of the Miami Valley Advisor / Volume 3/ November 2022Published Monthly by ITR Economics Macroeconomic OutlookIndustry Snapshots US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) returned to record-high territory, expanding by 0.64% from the second to third quarter after Arrow denotes 12-month moving total/average direction. posting mild contraction for the first two quarters of 2022. GDPs third-quarter rise stemmed from multiple components. Consumer Sheet Metal & Roofing Contractors spending expanded on net, with rise in spending on services of the Miami Valley Advisor / Volume 3/ November 2022Published Monthly by ITR Economics had offsetting decline in spending on goods. The trade deficit, which RETAIL SALES been generally growing since mid-2020, shrank in the third quarter, and government expenditures and investments rose. Private Macroeconomic Outlookinvestment, which includes investment in intellectual property and Industry Snapshots US Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) returned to record-high vely construction, declined. Generally speaking, GDP has been relatiWHOLESALE TRADE territory, expanding by 0.64% from the second to third quarter after ing flat this year, and we expect this flatness to persist in the composting mild contraction for the first two quarters of 2022. GDPs Arrow denotes 12-month moving total/average direction. quarters.third-quarter rise stemmed from multiple components. Consumer spending expanded on net, with rise in spending on services The Federal Reserve lifted rates in early November for a total AUTO PRODUCTION offsetting decline in spending on goods. The trade deficit, which had increase of 375 basis points year to date. Rising interest rates RETAIL SALES been generally growing since mid-2020, shrank in the third quarter, r have the potential to hinder consumer spending, capex, and otheand government expenditures and investments rose. Private investments. However, rising interest rates adverse impacts are not investment, which includes investment in intellectual property look and MANUFACTURING often immediate; the risk is greater to our longer-term GDP outconstruction, declined. Generally speaking, GDP has been relatively than to the 2023 outlook. For your business, understand that higher WHOLESALE TRADE flat this year, and we expect this flatness to persist in the comingborrowing costs are not necessarily reason to halt investments.quarters.Given the tight labor market, investments that will help limit your ROTARY RIG dependence on labor will likely prove worthwhile, as will those that The Federal Reserve lifted rates in early November for a total AUTO PRODUCTION improve your efficiencies.increase of 375 basis points year to date. Rising interest rates have the potential to hinder consumer spending, capex, and otheer The Federal Reserves actions are also spurring rise in mortgaginvestments. However, rising interest rates adverse impacts are not CAPITAL GOODS rates. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates have surpassed 7%, a level often immediate; the risk is greater to our longer-term GDP outlook s, MANUFACTURING not seen in just over 20 years. US New Homes Median Sales Pricethan to the 2023 outlook. For your business, understand that hid gher at $470 thousand as of September, are just below the July recorborrowing costs are not necessarily reason to halt investments.inghigh. Taken together, these affordability constraints are softenNONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION Given the tight labor market, investments that will help limit your ing demand in the residential construction market. Single-Unit HousROTARY RIG dependence on labor will likely prove worthwhile, as will thoseendthat Starts, below year-ago levels, are contracting and likely to trimprove your efficiencies.below 2021 levels next year. Multi-Unit Housing Starts are faring RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION better. Multi-Unit Starts will mildly decline during the first half of The Federal Reserves actions are also spurring rise in mortgage 2023, but the market will remain generally strong as affordability CAPITAL GOODS rates. 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates have surpassed 7%, a level issues keep some consumers from entering the Single-Unit market. not seen in just over 20 years. US New Homes Median Sales Pricey greater s, While trends will vary by region, you will likely find relativelat $470 thousand as of September, are just below the July record opportunity in the Multi-Unit market next year.high. Taken together, these affordability constraints are softening NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION For your business, understand that higher borrowing costs SteepMild Rise Flat MildSteepdemand in the residential construction market. Single-Unit Housing Starts, below year-ago levels, are contracting and likely to trend Rise Decline Decline are not necessarily reason to halt investments.below 2021 levels next year. Multi-Unit Housing Starts are faring RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION better. Multi-Unit Starts will mildly decline during the first hories alf of We will not see a pricing crash in housingvery tight invent2023, but the market will remain generally strong as affordability and low homeowner vacancy rates will keep prices elevatedissues keep some consumers from entering the Single-Unit market. but we are beginning to see pricing corrections in areas that While trends will vary by region, you will likely find relatively greater posted rapid housing price increases throughout the pandemic. opportunity in the Multi-Unit market next year.Affordability constraints, however, will linger. If your business is related to residential construction, understand that the booming For your business, understand that higher borrowing costs SteepMild Rise Flat MildSteephousing market of 2021 is shifting. Make sure you account for this Rise Decline Decline are not necessarily reason to halt investments.while planning for your business.We will not see a pricing crash in housingvery tight inventories and low homeowner vacancy rates will keep prices elevatedbut we are beginning to see pricing corrections in areas that 16 www.mrca.orgMidwest Roofer posted rapid housing price increases throughout the pandemic. Affordability constraints, however, will linger. If your business is ITReconomics.com 2022 All Rights Reserved 1related to residential construction, understand that the booming housing market of 2021 is shifting. Make sure you account for this while planning for your business.ITReconomics.com 2022 All Rights Reserved 1'