b'Economic Update CSIA 19is top of mind for many operators. As we# Employmenthead into 2026, the area of most concernI would pay close attention to the unemployment for the construction industry is profitrate, said Yaros. An unexpected decline in margin, said Basu.employment would spur faster interest rate Many operatorscuts as the Fed seeks to reinforce economic POISED FORare simultaneouslyexpansion.experiencing an A MODESTincrease in costs of# Consumer spendingREBOUND delivering servicesHow is the consumer faring? poses Basu. while demand fades. Bear in mind that many low and middle incomeU.S. GROSS DOMESTICpeople are exhausted financially. Indebtedness PRODUCT (GDP)Given the variety ofand delinquencies are up for credit cards, business concerns,mortgages and loans. (ANNUAL % CHANGE) its little wonder many 2015: 2.9% projects are being put# Inflation2016: 1.8% on hold. Its hard toIf we get stubbornly high inflation, that will 2017: 2.5% engage in cost savingsprevent further progress on interest rate, said 2018: 3.0% when both materialsBasu.2019: 2.5% and labor are becoming 2020: -2.2%more expensive, saidOxford Economics still expects the nation to 2021: 6.6% Basu. Too often, theavoid a recession, and the expected 2% GDP 2022: 2.5% A subduedpro formas dont pencilgrowth is right around the level economists 2023: 2.9%economy willout. Many companiespeg as the nations natural growth rateone 2024: 2.8% challengeare responding bythat supports business activity, maintains full * 2025: 1.7% businessnot expanding theiremployment, and avoids triggering inflation. * 2026: 2.0% operations inoperations and trying 2026. to trim expendituresPerhaps of even greater importance, though, at the margins. Theyis a little heralded threat to productivity. Source: World Bank; * = projectionsare focusing more onOne thing that sort of permeates the by Oxford Economics. cash flow preservationwhole economic picture right now is theCENTRAL STATES INSULATION ASSOCIATIONby slowing hiring,nations low population growth rate, said and being less aggressive in leasingConerly. Immigration is down, due to Trump and purchasing equipment, particularlyadministration policy. The next generation equipment impacted by tariff pricing. entering their working years is about the same size as the retiring boomers, so there This generalized business hesitation iswill be no net growth in the labor force.evidenced in the numbers.We look for business investment to increase by onlyResponding to this trend, companies in the 1.6% in 2026, after rising by 3% in 2025construction industry will look for ways to 3.6% in 2024, said Yaros.maximize their return on labor by increasing output per worker, noted Conerly. The focus Looking ahead of businesses in 2026 will be increasing As we enter the early months of 2026,productivitynot by whipping people harder, economists suggest that companies inbut by providing them with better tools, better the construction industry watch these keytraining, and better first-level managers.economic indicators for an idea of how the year will turn out:csiaonline.org'