b'ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CSIA 27Industry AnalysisRETAIL SALES WHOLESALE TRADE US Total Retail Sales in the 12 months throughAnnual US Total Wholesale Trade in January wasJanuary were at $8.160 trillion, 8.6% higher than up 15.2% from the prior yearthe same period one year agoA number of metrics point to waning Annual Retail Sales will rise into the end of this momentum: US Imports of Goods From theyear and then decline into the latter half of 2024 World have retreated from record-high levels, Consumers have been prioritizing consuming and US Surface Trade With Canada and Mexico isover saving, which suggests the decline will be displaying weak seasonal trendsmildDownside pressure on Wholesale Trade is likelyto persist in the coming quarters as the USindustrial and consumer sectors coolAUTO PRODUCTION MANUFACTURING North America Light Vehicle Production in the 12Annual US Total Manufacturing Production ismonths through January was 11.8% above the declining but as of February was still up 2.2%year-ago level from the prior year Annual Production will rise into late 2023 andThe ITR Leading Indicator and the US ISMthen decline in 2024 PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) suggest Production is gaining momentum as input that cyclical decline will persist in the comingavailability improves quarters Challenges in finding workers will incentivizefirms to replace human labor with machineswhere possible, cushioning Production declineROTARY RIG CAPITAL GOODS NEW ORDERS The annual US Rotary Rig Count averaged 746 inAnnual US Nondefense Capital Goods NewFebruary, up 45.1% year over year Orders (excluding aircraft) were up 7.8% in Recent decline in US Crude Oil Spot Prices is Januarylikely putting further downside pressure on theAnnual New Orders will begin declining in theRig Count latter half of this year The Biden administration approved aWaning macroeconomic data and elevateddrilling project in Alaska but extended Arctic interest rates are likely to deter some capexprotections; therefore, the projects approval is spending, particularly financed purchases CENTRAL STATES INSULATION ASSOCIATIONunlikely to significantly bolster activityTOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION US Total Nonresidential Construction in theUS Total Residential Construction in the 1212 months through January came in at $898.1 months through January came to $906.1 billion,billion, up 9.1% year over year up 11.4% from last year US Public Construction activity typically lags theWe expect Construction to decline into theoverall macroeconomy by about a year middle of 2024 2022s economic growth will likely translate toEvidence indicates that homes that sold inPublic Construction growth in 2023 January spent more time on the market thanhomes that sold in January 2022, which suggeststhat affordability headwinds are likely to hinderactivity in the near termITReconomics.com 2023 All Rights Reservedcontinuedpg.28csiaonline.org'