b'ECONOMIC FORECAST Continued from page 9including private equity, remain quite aggressive inof the goods retailers are selling.supplying capital. Construction woesHousing doldrums Outside of the single-family home market, contractors Speaking of lower interest rates, they cant come soonare having problems of their own. Multifamily builders, enough for a major driver of construction activity andworking through a backlog of units under construction, the nations economy: the housing sector. Housingare hesitant to break ground on new ones. I think is in a funk, said Yaros. Single-family homebuilderswell see less multifamily construction in 2026, said are contending with a growing supply of unsold,Conerly. Vacancy rates are going up and rents have completed new homes, as well as greater competitionbeen coming down at the rate of about one percent from the resale market and falling home prices in aa year.rising number of regions. Meanwhile, contractors attached to the commercial, The high cost of money is not helping matters. Aoffice and hotel markets are feeling the sting of significant increase in interest rates since the summeraslowingeconomy,highinterestrates,andan of 2022 has increased the monthly payments requiredenvironment rife with uncertainty. Many areas of from buyers of new or existing homes, said Petryk.non-residential are trending flat or edging down, They have also led to a significant market shortagesaid Conerly. Even the chip fabs, while still strong, because families who bought homes three to five- are tapering down.plus years ago are loath to surrender their sub-3%The one bright construction sector: data centers. They mortgages. show no signs of diminishing and are big customers Mortgage rates have an important impact on thefor electricians, plumbers, and suppliers of scaffolding consumerattitudesthatarevitaldriversoftheand manufactured products of all kinds. When I look economy.Whilelowershort-termratesmaybeat the detail and the economic statistics of what kind coming from the Federal Reserve, its unclear how much effect they will have on the longer-term ones that apply to the funding of new homes. I do notExperienced Counsel and forecast mortgage rates coming down enough to make a big difference in single-family construction, said Bill Conerly, Principal of his own consulting firmDetermined Professionalsin Lake Oswego, Oregon (conerlyconsulting.com).Wary builders. Reluctant sellers. Sluggish buyers. Its all having an effect on the housing market. OxfordAttorneys Economics expects starts to fall by 4.3% in 2025 and OSHA Defense You Can decline by another 2.3% in 2026 after dropping by 3.5% in 2024. Prices for existing homes are expected Workers Comp Defense Rely On for to increase only 1.5% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026 afterConstruction Law Effective rising by 4.4% in 2024.RepresentationConcerned about the rising cost of living, consumers Business Laware cutting back on spending of all kinds. Their Litigationhesitancyaffectstheretailsector,whichisan Labor & Employment Law Gary W. Aumanimportant driver and bellwether of the economy.Richard L. Carr, Jr. Our forecast for year-over-year retail sales growthDonald B. Rineer is 3.8% for 2026, down from the 4.5% of 2025, saidAmy C. Mitchell Scott Hoyt, Senior Director of Consumer EconomicsDouglas S. Jenks for Moodys Analytics (economy.com). Much of theAbigail K. White increase in both years is due to inflation. High pricesDavid M. Rickert are a bit of a mixed bag, said Hoyt. They undermineLindsey Deckconsumer purchasing power and confidence, butJon L. Sutermeisterthey also support nominal sales by lifting the prices937-223-6003 Lucas A. Strakowskiamfdayton.com10 www.mrca.orgMidwest Roofer'