b'Industry AnalysisRETAIL SALES WHOLESALE TRADE Annual US Total Retail Sales are up 10.1% fromAnnual US Total Wholesale Trade was up 17.9%last year in November Several factors portend softer consumerWe expect slowing growth to persist in thespending ahead, including decline in inflation- coming quartersadjusted savings levels, stock market volatility,Slowing industrial activity and waning Retailand elevated interest rates Sales momentum will hinder demand for goods However, a strong jobs market and low credit later this yeardelinquency rates suggest consumers will beable to continue spending through most of thisyearAUTO PRODUCTION MANUFACTURING Annual North America Light Vehicle ProductionUS Total Manufacturing Production is up 3.6%totaled 14.1 million units in November, up 7.9% from one year agofrom the year-ago levelProducer backlogs and our Retail Sales A number of leading indicators suggest that expectations suggest that further ManufacturingPhase B, Accelerating Growth, will persist during rise is likely during at least the first half of 2023the first half of this yearManufacturing will likely contract in 2024, in line However, a bearish stock market and elevated with expected trends in overall industrial activityinterest rates may hinder demand for vehiclesROTARY RIG CAPITAL GOODS NEW ORDERS The US Rotary Rig Count averaged 721 in 2022,US Nondefense Capital Goods New Ordersup 51.9% from the 2021 level (excluding aircraft) were up 9.1% in November Oil and natural gas exports are at or near recordHigher interest rates will contribute to slowinghighs, and extraction capacity is constrained, growth in the business-to-business sector thisindicating a need for more wells year This bodes well for further rise in the Rig CountHowever, nearshoring trends and extendedthis year backlogs will likely cushion downside pressuresTOTAL NONRESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION TOTAL RESIDENTIAL CONSTRUCTION US Total Nonresidential Construction during theAnnual US Single-Unit Housing Starts in12 months through November came in at $872.8 November were down 9.2% from last yearbillion, up 5.9% year-over-yearElevated mortgage rates are expected to hinder Construction backlogs suggest builders will consumer demand this yearremain busy through at least the first half of thisHowever, low inventories will buoy Starts andyear prevent a Great Recession-like scenario this Elevated interest rates and waning industrial cyclesector momentum could put some projects onholdITReconomics.com 2023 All Rights Reserved'