b'Business Management7 coronavirus-relatedandNewYork,accordingtoDanielPomfrett,vicepresident of Los Angeles-based project management and construction challengescostconsultingfirmCummingCorp.Lackofworkermigrationespecially to expensive markets with greater that will continue in 2021 jobopportunitieslikeCaliforniaandNewYorkalso By Shelley D. Hutchins, LEED-APaggravates the labor shortage, Pomfrett said.Theindustryin2021willstart ShrinkingbacklogAssociatedBuildersandContractors\' facingsignificantheadwinds,ConstructionBacklogIndicatorfellto7.5monthsineconomistsandotherexpertsSeptember, a decline of 0.5 months from Augusts reading predict. More than 1 year sinceand 1.5 months lower than 2019 during the same months. the first coronavirus cases wereInaddition,theassociation\'sConstructionConfidencereportedinWuhan,China,Index readings for sales and profit margins also decreased. COVID-19\'s global spread continues to plague commercialThemonthsaheaddon\'tlookhopefulforcontractors construction. Since the pandemic hit the U.S., contractorslooking to add to their backlog of work, said ABC Chief acrossthecountryhavefacedarangeofobstaclesEconomist Anirban Basu in a release about the indicator. includinglayoffs,projectshutdownsandincreased ABCssurveydataindicatethatweareintheearlyconstruction costs.stagesofanonresidentialconstructionspendingdown-turn, he said. With few exceptions, declines in backlog Throughout 2021, economists and industry experts predicthave begun to accelerate across all markets and regions. manyoftheseissueswillcontinuetochallenge contractors. Here are the top seven factors to watch:Fallingconstructioncosts A variety of pandemic-related forces have caused construction costs to decline slightly LaborshortagePre-pandemic,theindustryfacedafor the first time in a decade, which could lead contractors historic shortage of skilled labor and the issue isn\'t goingto feel a pinch in profits. away just because COVID-19 has shut down projects and slowedothers.AlthoughfirmshavebeencallingbackThe Turner Building Cost Index, which measures costs in workers who were laid off in 2020, some haverefused tothe U.S. nonresidential building construction market, fell returntowork,citingapreferenceforunemploymentto a value of 1171 in the third quarter of 2020, a 1.5% benefits, virus concerns or family responsibilities.quarterly reduction from the beginning of the year. This yearmarkedthefirsttimetheindexfromTurner Looking ahead to once a recovery begins, labor gaps mightConstructionhasreducedinvaluesince2010.Trade get even larger, especially in states like California, Texascontractorcompetitionhasincreasedinmanyareasas they work to secure backlog due to uncertainty they have about future opportunities," said Attilio Rivetti, the Turner vice president responsible for compiling the Cost Index in a press statement.Less work Various sectors of commercial construction will continue to experience a decline even after the rest of the economybeginstorecoverfromCOVID-19,economists say. For instance, experts predict people will continue to work from home more often then they go into a central office, so construction of office buildings remains a gray area in terms of future growth.Theconstructionofnewhealthcarefacilitiesalsocould dropsignificantlybecauseofchangesinlifestylespost-COVID-19, according to Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America. Hospital Page 6CONSTRUCTION JOURNAL'