b'ECONOMIC UPDATECONSTRUCTION FORECAST 2025WELCOME ECONOMIC REBOUNDBy: Phillip M. PerryHealthyeconomicgrowthwillhelpbolsterprofitsforconstructionand manufacturing operations in 2025. Lower interest rates, a decline in inflation, a rebound in housing activity, and governmental infrastructure support will generate tailwinds. However, businesses must beware supply chain disruptions resulting from geopolitical tensions, as well as the growing threat of tariffs.C learing skies with a chance of showers. Thesoft landing, avoiding a recession after a lengthy construction industry and manufacturersinflationary binge (see adjacent chart).can look forward to a gradually improvingDespite its positive nature, the GDP figure for operating environment in 2025, thanks to lower2025 is slightly lower than the 2.6% anticipated interest rates, moderating inflation, and steadywhen 2024 numbers are finally tallied. Thats if unspectacular growth in the nations overallbecause the nation is in a so-called late-stage economic activity. expansion,characterizedbyatendencyto We look for real GDP growth of 1.9% in 2025,slow down while maintaining sufficient force to said Bernard Yaros Jr., Lead U.S. Economistinvigorate commercial operations. at Oxford Economics (oxfordeconomics.com).Fair winds(Gross Domestic Product, the total value of theIn 2025, construction operations and manufacturers nations goods and services, is the most commonlycan look forward to a decline in both interest rates utilized measure of economic growth. Real GDPand inflationtwo bugbears that have drained subtracts the effects of inflation). profits in recent times. We anticipate a federal The good news is that the 1.9% boost is not farfunds interest rate of 2.75% by the end of 2025, off what economists peg as the nations naturaldown from a recent 4.75%, said Yaros. And we growth rateone that supports business activitylook for inflation to average 2.2% in the final quarter andmaintainsfullemployment. Andreducedof 2025, which will be within spitting distance of volatility in the GDP growth pattern in recent yearsthe Feds 2% target. Thats an improvement from suggests the nation is on a glide path to a so-calledthe 2.5% inflation level toward the end of 2024. 14 www.mrca.orgMidwest Roofer'