b'ECONOMIC OUTLOOK CSIA 21Sheet Metal & Roofing Contractors of the Miami Valley Advisor / Volume 3/ November 2022Published Monthly by ITR Economics Make Your Move Investor UpdateTo avoid profitless prosperity, yourThe S&P 500 Stock Prices Index ended business will need to make gains inOctober within approximately 2% of the efficiency and labor productivity. Look tomonth-end August level but down 18.8% improve your companys processes whereyear to date. Investors have responded possible. to the volatility by reducing their portfolio allocations to stocks.ITR Economics Long-Term View2022 2023 2024SLOWING GROWTH SLOWING GROWTH GROWTHLeading Indicator Snapshot4Q2022 1Q2023 2Q2023ITR Leading IndicatorITR Retail Sales Leading IndicatorUS OECD Leading IndicatorUS ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) CENTRAL STATES INSULATION ASSOCIATIONUS Total Industry Capacity Utilization RateDenotes that the indicator signals cyclical rise forDenotes that the indicator signals cyclical declineN/Athe economy in the given quarter. for the economy in the given quarter.KEY TAKEAWAYSThe ITR Leading Indicator moved lower in October, signaling that the US industrial sector is likely to remain on the back side of the business cycle through at least the first half of 2023.General decline signals from the US Total Industry Capacity Utilization Rate and the US ISM PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) rates-of-change also suggest the industrial sector will be on the back side of the business cycle through at least the first half of 2023.The ITR Retail Sales Leading Indicator moved lower in October, suggesting that waning momentum in US Total Retail Sales will likely persist in the coming quarters.ITReconomics.com 2022 All Rights Reserved 2continuedpg.26csiaonline.org'