b'CONSTRUCTION FORECASTNAVIGATING A TRICKY ECONOMIC TERRAINFASTEN YOUR SEAT BELTS AND ENJOY THE RIDE.By: Phillip M. PerryL ike airline travelers bracingbusiness growth. (Gross Domestic Product, the for expected turbulence,total value of the nations goods and services, the construction industryis the most commonly accepted measurement ispreparingforatrickyof economic growth. Real GDP adjusts for operating environment in 2024.inflation.)On the upside, the economySlowing economic activity will affect the bottom will continue to grow, although at a slower pace.line. Moodys Analytics expects a decline of 4.5% Consumers and businesses are both feeling fairlyin corporate profits for 2023 and only a modest optimistic, unemployment remains low, capitalrecovery of 0.3% in 2024. investments are plugging along at a healthyThe construction sector will feel similar downward pace, supply chains are improving, and the all- pressure. A major issue for construction is important housing market is burgeoning. that inflation remains problematic and interest Throwing cold water on the good times, though,rates are likely to stay higher for longer, said is a significant downer that no one can control:Anirban Basu, Chairman & CEO of Sage Policy Higher interest rates established by the FederalGroup (sagepolicy.com). That impacts project Reserve to control inflation are putting a damperfinancing. He notes that the economy is still on business activity. Economists are taking noteexperiencing inflation pressures from energy by lowering expectations for the next 12 months.prices, wages, and consumer spending. We expect real GDP to grow 1.4% in 2024,Basu sees something of a mixed bag for the said Bernard Yaros, Jr., Assistant Director andindustry. Heretofore, construction companies Economist at Moodys Analytics (economy.com).in all sectors have been busy. But I think what Thats slower than the 2.1% increase expectedyoull see going forward is that some contractors when 2023 numbers are finally tallied, and belowwill get even busier while others will see their the 2.0%-3.0% considered emblematic of normalrevenues begin to fade. 34 www.mrca.orgMidwest Roofer'