8 I Fall 2018 www.anjc.info e Update Medicare Q&A Legislative Update Labor Day is traditionally the start of the fall election season, when voters turn their attention away from summer to the ballots. New Jersey’s senior U.S. Senator, Robert Menendez, is facing a big challenge from Republican nominee Bob Hugin. There are also races for all 12 New Jersey House seats, in which several could flip from Republican to Democratic, which could have a big impact on whether the House turns blue. New Jersey has 12 House seats, seven of which are held by Democrats and five by Republicans. Four of those districts are considered potential pick-ups for Democrats. Flipping the House to Democratic control could have major consequences for immigration, health care, the environment and more parochial concerns like financing for the Hudson River rail tunnel or plans to open up the Eastern Seaboard to oil exploration. District 2 – With the retirement of Congressman Frank LoBiondo (R), the democrats are targeting this district as their #1 pick-up. The race is pitting State Senator Jeff Van Drew (D) against former Atlantic City Councilman and Atlantic County Freeholder Seth Grossman (R). With the support of the local and national Democratic Party machine and money, and a history of winning elections in Republican territory, Van Drew is well positioned to flip the sprawling congressional district from Republican to Democrat. District 3 – Congressman Tom MacArthur (R) is running against Andy Kim (D) in the race to represent New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, in which Congressman MacArthur has represented the district in the House since 2015. The district went for President Trump in 2016 by a margin of 6.2 points. Congressman MacArthur is seen as vulnerable, because although his district strongly leans Republican, he has been the lone Republican in New Jersey to vote for legislation that supports President Trump, supporting controversial laws such as the tax reform bill and the health care reform act. District 7 – Congressman Leonard Lance (R) is running against Tom Malinowski (D) a former assistant secretary of state under President Barack Obama. Lance, who has held the seat since 2009, is considered vulnerable this year as Democrats look to seize on President Trump’s unpopularity in New Jersey and make gains in the Republican- controlled House. Congressman Lance has tried to distance himself from President Trump, voting against a GOP bill to repeal the Affordable Care Act and against Trump’s tax law. District 11 – Congressman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R), who has represented the district in the House since 1995, announced in January of this year that he will not be seeking reelection, setting up one of the most hotly contested races in the nation between Mikie Sherrill (D), a former United States Navy helicopter pilot and a former federal prosecutor and state Assemblyman Jay Webber (R). A recent poll from Monmouth University shows Sherrill running competitively against Webber in the 11th district with a Democratic enthusiasm gap that could push her ahead. The survey shows Sherrill with 40 percent compared with Webber’s 38 percent among all potential voters. But under a voter turnout model that anticipates a Democratic surge, she leads 45 percent to 39 percent. The poll shows that Democrats are indeed energized, with 67 percent of self-identified Democrats saying they have a lot of interest in the election, while just 48 percent of Republicans say the same. Battle for Senate Seat What seemed like an easy path to re-election for Senator Robert Menendez (D) is turning into an expensive and nasty fight, causing concern for Democrats. His challenger, Bob Hugin (R), the former chairman and CEO of the Celgene Corporation and Trustee of Atlantic Health System, has contributed $15.5 million of his own money to his campaign and has already spent over $8 million on commercials against his opponent. Democrats, trailing by just one seat in the U.S. Senate, had not expected to have to put much work into defending Sen. Bob Menendez in a state that has not elected a Republican to the upper house in more than four decades. But the race is tight due to Menendez’s recent trial on corruption charges, which were later dismissed. A recent Quinnipiac University survey gave Menendez a 6-point lead among voters in a poll that has a margin of error of 4.6 points. Quinnipiac’s previous poll on the race, in March, gave Menendez a 17-point lead. Jon Bombardieri and his firm, CLB Partners, serve as the Government Affairs Counsel to the ANJC. By Jon Bombardieri ANJC Government Affairs Counsel NEW JERSEY Midterm Elections